PERSPEC 2025-CHICKEN/CEPEA: Sector may grow in 2025, but must, once again, face challenges

Cepea, 01/03/2025 – The current scenario indicates that the national poultry sector may continue to grow in 2025, but it must – once again – face many challenges, especially those related to animal biosecurity and conflicts in important countries that are destinations for Brazilian meat. Studies conducted by Cepea researchers indicate that chicken meat production should reach 14.2 million tons in 2025, an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous year. On the demand side, ABPA projects that per capita meat consumption will total 46.6 kg in 2025, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. The poultry sector’s growth prospects in 2025, however, depend on the absence of cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1 or HPAI) on commercial farms (or other types of influenza). For now, Brazil has benefited from these circumstances. This is because cases of influenza in other producing countries have shifted global demand to Brazil, which, it should be noted, remains free of this disease, according to the guidelines of the World Organization for Animal Health (WHO). The Brazilian poultry sector also needs to monitor the conflicts in the Middle East, which completed one year in October 2024. Brazil is the largest global supplier of Halal chicken meat to Middle Eastern countries, including the United Arab Emirates, which are currently the second largest destinations for Brazilian meat – in 2024 (up to November), Brazil shipped 425 thousand tons of meat to the Arab country. Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)