PERSPEC 2025-COFFEE/CEPEA: With tight stocks, 2025 should be another profitable year for coffee farming

Cepea, 01/03/2025 – The year 2025 promises to be challenging again for national and global coffee production, especially when it comes to meeting global demand. According to Cepea researchers, domestic and international prices, which are already operating at record levels, are expected to remain high, given a short-term projection without major increases in production, tight grain stocks and firm global demand. In Brazil, there have been four harvests in which production has not renewed the record – 2020/21 was the last season in which the harvested volume was above 60 million bags, according to data from Conab. And this sequence of harvests below expectations was hampered by the unfavorable weather. Researchers emphasize that the 2025/26 season, which will be harvested in mid-2025, will still be affected by the 2024 climate. In addition to Brazil, the 2024 climate also affected the harvest in Vietnam, the world's second largest coffee producer. In other words, at least in the short term, there are no variables that indicate any consistent recovery of stocks or even a strong reduction in consumption. Furthermore, with the sector earning more and with favored purchasing power, producers were able to carry out crop treatments appropriately, which, in turn, can guarantee the supply of nutrients and minimize climate impacts on production. On the external front, Brazilian coffee exports performed excellently in 2024 and this scenario should persist in 2025, especially in the case of robusta. According to Cepea researchers, in addition to the global context of low supply and heated demand, the devalued Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee and makes exports more attractive to domestic sellers. Thus, the expectation is that shipments will once again exceed 40 million bags in 2024/25. Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)